FSU recruiting: Taking stock of Seminoles’ signing class and transfer portal operation after start of Early Signing Period (2024)

I think we found our answer.

After FSU’s snub from the playoff, fans sounded the alarm that because the Seminoles were left out of the big dance, their ability to stockpile talent would come crashing down. From the start, I pushed back on this take, explaining that recruits looked at more than one benchmark when making a college decision. The snub did not kill Florida State’s chances of landing top prospects.

But you can argue it killed their momentum.

After FSU’s thrilling win against Miami in early November, the Seminoles could not be stopped on the field or the trail. Mike Norvell found a way to get as star-studded a visitor list as any in the country to take in a rivalry win on a beautiful night. FSU reaped instead dividends with commits from Cai Bates and Jamari Howard. Everything seemed to go the ‘Noles way until the decision. Then, it came to a screeching halt. Since FSU found themselves on the outside looking in, they have had double-digit portal entries, went 0/3 on their top recruiting targets, and only landed one player out of the portal. With this backdrop, it is time to look at the offseason in Tallahassee.

Recruiting

I will start with the good. This class is the best of the Mike Norvell era. The Patrick Surtain hire gave FSU their best recruiter, which led to one of the best secondary classes in the country, even with the loss of K.J. Bolden. Their blue-chip percentage is the highest they have had, and this will be the highest number of players to sign their LOI since Norvell’s first class, giving a roster with plenty of eligibility-exhausting seniors an infusion of youth. On top of all this, the class seems to love Florida State and what Mike Norvell is building. Many of these commitments have been pledged since the summer, some even earlier, like Kam Davis, who committed over two years ago! With negative attention outside the program, I think this may be the most underrated part of this group. During his press conference, Mike Norvell spoke highly of the class the Seminoles signed yesterday.

“Obviously, this is a class that we are extremely excited about. This class has been four years in the making...this is class where we wanted to attract the top playmakers, and I think we’ve hit a home run when it comes to that.”

However, there are loads to fix.

After this signing day, Mike Norvell’s best recruits out of high school are Sam McCall and Hykeem Williams. The Seminoles again struck out on all their top targets after getting all of them on campus in November or December. There are two glaring issues with this coaching staff regarding recruiting.

1. Struggles closing with high-profile prospects

Every coaching staff has weaknesses, and this is it for Mike Norvell and his group. In the last three years, a top 100 commit has flipped on signing day, taking out the crown jewel of that specific class. (K.J. Bolden, Keldric Faulk, Travis Hunter). They cannot get the ball across the goal line for some reason. The staff lacks someone with a killer instinct to shut down recruitment, and their strategy of creating excellent relationships has not worked with the best recruits in the country. Like I said, a month ago, they stood toe to toe with any other program. Now, another solid class comes to Tallahassee but lacks the brand names because they went elsewhere in the 11th hour.

2. Defensive line recruiting is falling behind

Odell Haggins and John Papuchis are outstanding position coaches. Haggins is the vocal leader of the defense, and his service to Tallahassee is well-documented. Papuchis has landed impactful transfers at the edge position, and special teams have exploded under his watch. However, the recruiting out of high school is dreadful.

Again, after a 13-0 season, it feels wrong to criticize the coaching staff. But these numbers are getting ridiculous. Right now, there is only three commitments along the defensive line, and none are expected to make an impact right away. There is a disconnect, and Mike Norvell has not implemented a solution to fix it.

Analysis: If FSU wants to get back to the level it expects to, it needs to start landing elite talent, and they have not been able to. Now, the coaching staff develops as well as any, which takes away some of the pain from not signing high-level high school prospects. But, eventually, the inability to get the best of the best in Tallahassee will slow the program's progress.

Transfer Portal

Hello, old friend. Florida State felt they would only take 5-7 players out of the portal because of the recruiting class they were taking in. Many thought the Seminoles should try retooling for a year to give the young talent a chance to play early.

The recruiting losses should change the plans.

Unfortunately, the Seminoles have not been active so far. The Noles have only banked one commitment so far, although it is essential along the defensive line. However, FSU is behind. Louisville, FSU’s ACC championship opponent, landed 16 commitments so far. Ole Miss often goes toe-to-toe with FSU in the portal and has ten commitments filled with elite talent. Now, with some recruiting losses and glaring holes in the roster, the portal king needs to reclaim his crown.

To start, the Seminoles will need to retool along the defensive line. As mentioned, the recruiting losses hurt their future plans and how they planned to fill in the gaps next season. I expect Norvell to try and take 3 to 4 players along the front seven under the assumption that no one else enters the portal. Furthermore, FSU needs to take another WR out of the portal. The strikeout on Jeremiah Smith leaves the roster without a true #1 target. Another Keon Coleman may not be available this time around, but the pass-catching group right now is a significant step back from what it was last season.

Florida State desperately needed good news during the early signing period, which never came. The off-season still needs a jolt of momentum and the bleeding to stop. While Mike Norvell’s staff executed at a high level, the feeling of what if still percolates a day later. Hopefully, this class can prove that all the hand-wringing is overblown.